J. Michael Cole, The Taiwan Tinderbox: The Island-Nation at the Centre of the New Cold War – Polity, October 2025

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 shocked the world and overturned assumptions that large-scale conventional war was inconceivable in the 21st century. On the other side of the planet, democratic Taiwan faces the rising threat of a military takeover by China – a conflict whose impact on the international community would be catastrophic.
 
Renowned Taiwan expert and former intelligence officer J. Michael Cole explains how this Pacific nation has become a tinderbox that could ignite a full-scale global conflict. Drawing on unparalleled access to Taiwanese government sources and two decades of on-the-ground observation, he explores the root causes of the conflict between Taiwan and China – from the identity politics that make “peaceful unification” inconceivable, to the rise of Xi Jinping, the most powerful and authoritarian Chinese leader since Mao Zedong. With in-depth analysis of how the war in Europe is influencing preparations by Beijing, Taipei, and Washington for a potential cross-strait confrontation, The Taiwan Tinderbox is an impassioned plea for the defense of Taiwan as a priority for the international community and the future of democracy.