Good piece on Nate Silver’s methods. And a great line about ‘the audacity of competence’.
There are many things to remember about this week’s presidential election in the US — vast amounts of money, a polarized electorate, an empty chair, and much more. But one lasting change may be the emergence of a truly viable meta-analysis of polling and projections courtesy of Nate Silver and his FiveThirtyEight blog.
But getting the story right is important.
A post-election article by Dan Lyons on ReadWrite yesterday sought to make the case that the accuracy of statistical analyses made by Silver for the US presidential and Senate races is a sign of how “big data” will end the era of mystical predictions:
This is about the triumph of machines and software over gut instinct. The age of voodoo is over. The era of talking about something as a “dark art” is done. In a world with big computers and big data, there are no dark arts.
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